Revised September 2011
To begin shortly COP 15 Copenhagen, the Climate Change Summit hosted by the United Nations, to be held in the Danish capital from 7 to 18 December 2009, it is this opportunity to remind the curve “hockey stick”. This is a graph in which one of the variables has a smooth behavior for a while, almost parallel to the x-axis, slightly inclined to a certain point where the curve changes abruptly moves away from the horizontal and is becoming more parallel to the y-axis or vertical line time, taking the form of the sports implement to which it owes its name.
In today’s world people are divided into three groups according to their opinions about climate change. The first is located who believe that the problem is real and serious, and believe that if the crisis is not acting can lead to a real catastrophe. In the middle are the apathetic, uninformed, who report their daily chores not allow them to learn about the situation. In the third group are the naysayers, people who think this and that climate change and global warming are mere stories, inventions or exaggerations and that in any case does not represent an imminent danger.
The present state of the science is unable to predict if global warming curve corresponds to a “hockey stick” or not, the temperature may be in varying phase slight increase with time. Therefore, no one can affirm or deny that climate change allegedly developing on our planet, can lead before the end of the 21st century to an abrupt phase in which the temperature could increase five to ten degrees. This is unpredictable as it has never been a similar situation in the past, extreme human intervention on the planet. It therefore is an unprecedented situation. Mathematical simulation models are unreliable for now, due to the myriad of biotic and abiotic variables present in the multiple ecological systems on Earth.
If people in the first group are those that finally would have the right, and if the proportional shares his opinions are not made, then a catastrophe that could befall have different shades, at the end let us imagine a situation of “hockey stick” a gigantic environmental chaos that would include the disappearance of the human species and thousands of species. If you have reason individuals are the third group then anything drastic happen on climate change and small variations they could be managed over time, in step with the dictates of political and economies.
Consequently, tremendous questions for Summit participants open: how will know who is right? What decisions will be taken? What criteria used to take them? Huge responsibility before history and future generations.
Unfortunately there is talk that the decisions of the summit will be mere declarations and shall not be binding for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Its objectives are limited to be “ambitious, but without requiring polluting countries to reduce their emissions.” If true, we have not learned the lesson of Kyoto.
Remember that on any other planet, even though scientists have scrutinized the cosmos, it has even discovered primitive microorganisms. Instead on Earth there is an almost unlimited vital exuberance. It is our urgent duty to care and preserve. No one should dismiss the extinction of life on the planet as a real possibility.
Copenhagen is not a game … but maybe there the fate of humanity is played.
Sandor Alejandro Gerendas-Kiss